it's seems wrong that something with a 31.8% chance of not happening should feel like a foregone conclusion, but it does

Current market-based estimates of the probability of candidates winning the 2008 Democratic nomination:

Clinton: 68.6%
Gore: 11.5%
Obama: 11.2%
Edwards: 3.5%

So, Obama has fallen behind someone who has given no indication of running for President. It's becoming harder to imagine what that 1 in 3 scenario would be under which Clinton does not win the nomination.

I am no longer as pessimistic about Clinton's chances of winning the general election, although I'm not sure if this is just me being lulled into denial about how nasty the Republican negative campaigning against her is going to be.

Prediction markets, incidentally, have consistently failed to reflect the idea that Clinton faces a particular disadvantage over other Democratic candidates should she get the nomination. So while people such as myself like to opine that idea, it doesn't have traction among anyone willing to put money where their mouth is.